What: "G.O.P. House Majority at Risk", FiveThirtyEight
When: August 12, 2011
There has been various circumstantial evidence that the public's dissatisfaction with the performance of Congress, particularly during the debt ceiling debate, could threaten the Republican majority in the House of Representatives. Disapproval ratings for the Congress are at record highs, as are disapproval ratings for the Republican Party. Other polls show record numbers of Americans saying that their representative should not be re-elected, that most members of Congress should not be re-elected, or both.
What we haven't had, however, are polls comparing Democrats against Republicans in a direct way. That's why the poll that Gallup published Friday ought to concern Republicans. It shows a 7-point Democratic advantage on the generic Congressional ballot — meaning simply that more Americans told Gallup they plan to vote for a Democrat for Congress next year. Although the generic ballot is a crude measure, it is probably the best macro-level indicator of the direction that the House is headed in.
Last year, Republicans won the popular vote for the U.S. House — essentially what the generic ballot is trying to measure — by 7 percentage points. So a poll showing Democrats 7 points ahead instead is a pretty significant swing.
But does it mean that Democrats are now favorites to take over the Congress next year?
No, not exactly. Instead, it points toward control of the House being more or less a toss-up. There are three structural issues that Democrats will have to contend with that take a little bit of the sheen off this poll ....
While it is true that the polls savaged Congress, and battered Republicans far worse than Democrats, the question of whether or not a generic ballot poll over a year before the election really tells us anything is a dubious inquiry. Largely, the problem is that American voters are notoriously fickle, and, furthermore, the way scandals break, spread, and reshuffle public opinion is dangerously unpredictable.
One hidden factor playing to the Democrats' advantage, as such, is the insistent unity of the Tea Party—a fragmented movement that pretends that each of its fragments speaks for the nation.
It is a diverse movement philosophically; much like the Corpus Christi, they are strangely united despite contradicting themselves so often. Get the government out of health care? Or hands off their Medicare? Is Obama a Nazi, or a Jew? So many different directions; so many facets, like a disco ball of ideas. It is entirely possible that their unity could be their downfall. Consider the absurd notion of Michele Bachmann as the nominee, and then someone releases photos of Marcus Bachmann in a dom costume, smacking the hell out of a teenage boy's ass. Obviously, such a scandal could discredit the entire Tea Party.
More realistically, what with Republicans disproportionately being caught in screaming and scandalous hypocrisy, it is more appropriate to say that one high profile Tea Partier falling to corruption and sin could gravely wound the whole movement.
Therein lies the problem. There is no guarantee, according such hypothetical liberty, that President Obama would not turn up on an underage hooker somewhere. Or—and, again, more realistically—while it's true that people are really upset with Republicans right now, how are they going to be feeling come Christmas, when they are furious about unemployment and a record cold washes across the midwest, killing sixteen across three states who couldn't afford their heating fuel?
Thus disclaimed, the analysis is not without merit. Indeed, it is considerably longer and more complex than the detail above, and intended toward a wholly different purpose.
Remember this the next time you hear pundits arguing about the 2012 elections. You know, like tomorrow, or next Tuesday, or something like that.
No comments:
Post a Comment