All the Subtlety of a Newtron Bomb

Who: KCRW
What: To the Point
When: December 5, 2011

Figuring the subtleties of Newt Gingrich is a bit like getting beaten by an angry Pillsbury Doughboy. That is, for all it might hurt, it is hard not to laugh at the absurdity of the proposition; and it is probably something one ought not undertake without first ingesting some sort of hallucinogen.

Still, though, Warren Olney and his panel of guests put in a pretty good effort at trying to explain the Newtron Bomber:

Famous Last Words?

In June, I offered up for friends and associates an analysis of the Republican presidential field in the context of Newt Gingrich:

When Democrats compete to challenge an incumbent Republican president, liberals tend to regard seemingly hopeless candidacies, such as the Rev. Al Sharpton's 2004 run, or even the respectable but wildly unsuccessful effort by former Sen. Caron Moseley Braun, as issue advocacy campaigns.

With the GOP field this year so presently disorganized, it is hard to figure who falls where. In some cases, such as former Sen. Rick Santorum, it is easy enough to figure; he is playing to and for the social conservatives—clearly, barring some apocalyptic collapse of the American political structure, Santorum cannot win. One might suggest the same of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, if she declares as expected.

Some consider Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty the foremost "serious" candidate, with the adjective taken to mean someone who actually can compete in the general election.

Which leaves a tier of candidates like Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich, who bring leagues of devoted fans and followers to the contest, and certainly have a penchant for headlines—thus posturing them as significant players in the early rounds—who cannot win the general election.

One could easily suggest that these will be relegated to the advocacy tier, but American politics is also so chaotic that Palin or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich could seriously unsettle a candidate like Pawlenty as the Republican Party moves toward its convention in Tampa at the end of August, 2012.

It is astounding how wrong I was. Tim Pawlenty is out. Newt Gingrich is running third.

It would be best, I figure, if I don't try to revise that analysis, and simply remind that anyone trying to tell you what conventional wisdom says is probably wrong. We'll see what the New Year brings, but come on ... really? Newt Gingrich is running in third place? Behind a book tour, and the guy Republicans seem determined to avoid?

Yeah, we'll see how they feel about Romney when the calendar turns to 2012 and the primary season kicks off. But the preseason so far has been an exercise in confusion.

Mississippi GOP: Less than half support interracial marriage

Who: Public Policy Polling
What: "MS GOP: Bryant for Gov., Barbour or Huckabee for Pres."
When: April 7, 2011

46% of these hardcore Republican voters believe interracial marriage should be illegal, while 40% think it should be legal.

You read that correctly: Six of ten Mississippi Republicans polled in late March are unable to accept or agree that interracial marriage should be legal.

Of the four hundred "usual Mississippi Republican primary voters" surveyed, that means about 186 gave the straithgforward answer that miscegenating marriages should be illegal. In truth, it is a simple enough argument to understand, even if one disagrees with it to the point of mockery.

Perhaps a bit more confusing, though, are the 56 or so respondents who said they didn't know if interracial marriage should be legal. How, exactly, does that opinion work? What is the underlying question?

The statistical breakdown is an interesting dynamic for the wonkish, too. The strongest opposition to miscegenating marriages is found among Governor Haley Barbour's supporters; they account for thirty-seven percent of the opinion against interracial marriage, and thirty-five percent of the uncertain. Without Barbour in the race, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee led the poll result, as well as held the biggest share of those opposed to interracial marriage. Without Barbour in the race, Huckabee (33%), former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (27%), and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (21%) draw over eighty percent of those opposed to interracial marriage.

None of that, of course, surprises liberals. Though they should note that Rep. Michele Bachmann (MN-6) did not seem to draw much for racists. Among the five percent of respondents who preferred her as the Republican 2012 presidential candidate, only one in six oppose interracial marriage. Technically, that's a better number than her state-mate, Gov. Tim Palwenty's supporters; the Minnesota governor drew only three percent of the respondents, one in five of whom oppose interracial marriage.

I think. They are rough enough numbers; with Pawlenty supporters, you are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of two people who oppose interracial marriage. And it is Mississippi, after all.