What: "The growing acceptance of the 'sabotage' question", Political Animal
When: November 7, 2011
At first glance, it is just one of those things. Everybody has a certain line they won't cross. It is a line of human decency. And it's not that they won't commit this or that atrocity but, rather, a point beyond which they cannot believe "normal"—a highly subjective word, especially in this context—people would tread. It is a point which other people's cynicism can encompass, but no, one says, not me: I cannot believe that other people should behave that way, or that respectable folk would let them get away with it.
But it's been a question in the back of political observers' minds since the midterm election, if not before.
The New York Times editorial board had a piece today on the importance of unemployment benefits, and made an observation in passing that stood out for me.
"Tragically," the editorial said, "the more entrenched the jobs shortage becomes, the more paralyzed Congress becomes, with Republicans committed to doing nothing in the hopes that the faltering economy will cost President Obama his job in 2012."
The point was made in passing, but it's nevertheless striking. As far as the editorial board of the nation's most important newspaper is concerned, it's simply accepted as fact that congressional Republicans want to hold back the economy, on purpose, to undermine the Obama presidency.
Benen's analysis of the question shows such attitudes are a minority, to be certain, but only barely. A recent Washington Post/ABC News poll put Obama up against Congressional Republicans, with the result that 50% sided with Obama.
This comes less than a week after a poll in Florida found that 49% of voters statewide believe congressional Republicans “are intentionally hindering efforts to boost the economy so that President Barack Obama will not be reelected.” The WaPo/ABC poll is, as best as I can tell, the first national poll to consider the same issue.
To be sure, the wording of this new poll isn’t ideal, and is far less direct than the poll conducted in Florida. But the takeaway is still pretty clear: half the country is inclined to believe GOP officials are killing efforts to boost the economy for purely political reasons.
Still, though, such a cynical gamble might work. Albeit with some minor exceptions, the American political system is a two-party arrangement.
A conservative associate recently pointed out to me that in 2010, the Republican margin was actually closer to fifteen percent, because the GOP one 14.77% more votes than Democrats. And it's true: the difference does equal 14.77% of the Democratic vote total. But what, really, does this half-witted fluffing of the margin really say? One would think the similarly-calculated 15.88% margin for President Obama, and the 20.66% congressional numbers (peaking at 25% in the Senate) would say even more in those terms. Yet what it has earned the nation is stonewall obstructionism from the GOP. Were those 14.77% more voters than Democrats hoping to duck out on the national debt? Were they hoping state houses would start tinkering with their zoning regulations to close specific medical facilities? Were they really voting for another round of the culture war as we see coming from the right?
What, really, is the likelihood of that 14.77% more voters than the Democrats won actually got what they were hoping for out of the deal?
Still, though, my associate's determination to convince me that all this obstructionism spells doom for Obama is not unfounded. There is a strong likelihood that it could work:
Though in theory, it should, this won’t necessarily give President Obama a boost. The degree of national cynicism is so intense, many Americans may simply assume Republicans are sabotaging the national economy, but take their frustrations out on the president anyway. As Greg noted, “The number who see Obama as a strong leader is now upside down (48-51), suggesting yet again that even if Americans understand that Republicans are deliberately blocking Obama’s policies, they may conclude that his failure to get around them just shows he’s weak or ineffectual.”
Voters’ understanding of the political process is severely limited, and many Americans likely fail to appreciate the role Congress must play in policymaking. There are no doubt plenty of voters thinking, “Sure, Republicans are sabotaging the economy, but why can’t Obama just go around them?” unaware of the fact that, on a grand scale, this isn’t an option.
Still, it is telling, at the very least, that the question of whether Republicans are deliberately stonewalling the economy in hopes that voters will punish Democrats should even be something we might have to take seriously.
